Warning: Spoilers for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore!
An underwhelming box office debut for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore could kill plans for Fantastic Beasts 4. The Secrets of Dumbledore had the lowest box office opening for the series, only grossing $6 million opening night. In comparison, the first Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them collected $8.7 million, and The Crimes of Grindelwald made $9.1 million.
These numbers suggest viewers are losing interest in the Fantastic Beasts series, even though The Secrets of Dumbledore received much more favorable reviews than its previous installment. The Crimes of Grindelwald was criticized for its messy, overstuffed story and confusing worldbuilding. As a result, Fantastic Beasts 3 did its best to refocus the narrative on fan-favorite characters like Albus Dumbledore and his relationship with Gellert Grindelwald. Yet, it was evidently not enough to combat the many challenges the movie faced right from the start.
The COVID-19 pandemic, which had caused delays and other issues during production of Fantastic Beasts 3, is still hurting the global box office, especially in China, where roughly 50 percent of movie theaters are currently closed. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also hurt global sales since that country has been denied access to Hollywood films. Warner Bros. had originally planned for a total of five Fantastic Beasts movies, but low box office earnings, along with a host of other complications, might prevent Fantastic Beasts 4 from being made.
At the time of writing, Fantastic Beasts 4 has not been greenlit. A screenplay for the fourth film has not yet been written, and Warner Bros. executives are reportedly waiting to see how well The Secrets of Dumbledore performs before making any decisions. The mounting controversies surrounding the Fantastic Beasts franchise have undoubtedly made continuing the series less appealing to Warner Bros., as well.
J.K. Rowling, who wrote the Harry Potter books and co-wrote the script for Fantastic Beasts 3, has been repeatedly criticized in the media for her controversial statements on gender, especially her remarks concerning the LGBTQ+ community. The domestic abuse allegations against Johnny Depp forced the actor not to reprise his role as Grindelwald for The Secrets of Dumbledore, and Mads Mikkelsen was recast for the part. On top of that, another prominent actor in the series, Ezra Miller, has been making headlines for recent arrests for disorderly conduct and harassment. The seemingly endless bad press associated with Fantastic Beasts might be making Warner Bros. even more hesitant to greenlight a fourth film, especially since the series has not been generating enough money to make the headaches worth it.
Fantastic Beasts 3 encountered many difficulties while in production that, along with pandemic delays, increased the film's budget up to $200 million. This amount does not account for money spent promoting the movie, which did not garner the success Warner Bros. hoped for. The Secrets of Dumbledore acquired about $43 million domestically for its opening weekend at the box office, which is about $20 million less than Fantastic Beasts 2 earned and a new record low for the franchise. Just like the previous Fantastic Beasts movies, this one has fared much better internationally, but the timing of its release has seriously limited potential global earnings.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, only five Hollywood movies have managed to acquire at least $500 million at the global box office, and Fantastic Beasts 3 is not even close to that milestone. So far, The Secrets of Dumbledore has collected an estimated $193 million total, meaning it should at least break even during its theatrical run, which is a far cry from the previous films' profits. With similar budgets, the first movie earned over $800 million, and Fantastic Beasts 2 earned about $654.9 million. The Secrets of Dumbledore would need to at least come close to matching its predecessor for it to be marked as a success, which appears unlikely to happen.
Secrets of Dumbledore's box office could put Fantastic Beasts 4 in jeopardy. Warner Bros. has not released any statements about the controversies surrounding what should have been one of its most profitable franchises, nor have they announced anything concerning the future of the Fantastic Beasts series. The ending of The Secrets of Dumbledore certainly set up another installment, as Grindelwald managed to avoid capture and has not yet had the infamous duel with Dumbledore that made the latter famous. Tina Goldstein was also barely in this movie, despite being a major character in the first two films.
Yet, even though some of the franchise's overarching plot was left unresolved, some viewers have argued the story in Fantastic Beasts 3 ended well enough that another film isn't all that necessary. Warner Bros. is certainly being cautious about announcing another movie, so even if they do decide to move forward with Fantastic Beasts 4, it likely won't be coming out anytime soon. However, taking into account everything that has gone wrong for the series, a more viable route for the future of Harry Potter may be exploring different characters or storylines altogether.
Although Warner Bros. has not yet made any decisions, the studio may choose to make another Harry Potter spinoff instead of Fantastic Beasts 4. Chris Columbus, who directed Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, has previously expressed interest in adapting the Cursed Child stage production into a movie. Cursed Child takes place right after the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows epilogue and follows the children of Harry, Ron, and Hermione as they go on an adventure of their own, growing closer to their parents in the process.
There have also been rumors that a series set in the world of Harry Potter is in very early development at HBO Max. Warner Bros. and HBO Max have released a statement that nothing is currently in development, but several sources have confirmed a project is indeed in its very early stages with the streaming platform. Analyst Jeff Bock said, "There’s still a lot of directions that Warner could take Wizarding World in the long-term, but right now, they need to get back to what people like most about it, and that’s Harry." Whether Warner Bros. chooses to take this advice or continue with their five planned Fantastic Beasts movies remain to be seen, but considering how tired audiences seem to have become of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, it might indeed be a good idea to take the Harry Potter franchise in a different direction.
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